Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 4695 at 20:55 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 4695 SFO 20:55 → ACV 22:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest UA 4708 SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4695 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:55	ACV 22:13	16%	10%	4.3%	74%
UA 419 United	SFO 16:19	ACV 17:38	16%	7%	1.8%	no record
UA 4715 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 14:15	ACV 15:49	22%	10%	2.7%	78%
UA 4708 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:15	ACV 11:42	33%	19%	1.9%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON