tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 43% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 2h 49m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → ANC 16:57DL 411 11h 57m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:29 → SEA 19:44DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest 1h 36m Seattle SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936 7h 29m 93% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 33m Denver DEN 19:08 → ANC 22:57UA 280 11h 14m 96% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 1h 28m Portland PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775 7h 02m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568 1h 20m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 12h 39m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721 2h 30m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922 8h 22m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → SFO 08:09 → DFW 13:40AA 304 1h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:17 → ANC 19:28AA 399 12h 19m 93% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:20 → SEA 17:24AS 630 3h 30m Seattle SEA 20:54 → ANC 23:41AS 228 9h 21m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:50 → SEA 18:00AS 1340 58m Seattle SEA 18:58 → ANC 21:42AS 1438 6h 52m 71% 52%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 09:00 → SEA 11:15AS 1327 56m Seattle SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:58AS 1434 6h 58m 57% 41%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27AS 656 55m Seattle SEA 13:22 → ANC 16:10AS 1440 6h 52m 43% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON