Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 400 at 00:08 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 400 SFO 00:08 → AUS 05:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2375 SFO 12:19 → AUS 17:44 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 400 United	SFO 00:08	AUS 05:24	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1107 United Flight history →	SFO 08:35	AUS 14:06	9%	2%	0.6%	98%
UA 2332 United Flight history →	SFO 18:32	AUS 00:04	12%	4%	0.6%	87%
DL 381 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:49	AUS 15:36	12%	4%	0.7%	69%
UA 1116 United Flight history →	SFO 13:20	AUS 19:05	15%	5%	0.6%	81%
UA 2150 United	SFO 16:12	AUS 21:50	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2432 United	SFO 10:59	AUS 16:42	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 682 Southwest	SFO 15:26	AUS 20:51	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 1077 Delta Flight history →	SFO 17:59	AUS 23:32	16%	6%	0.7%	47%
WN 2375 Southwest	SFO 12:19	AUS 17:44	23%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON