Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1683 SFO 23:02 → BNA 05:12 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 433 SFO 14:27 → BNA 20:44 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1683 Southwest	SFO 23:02	BNA 05:12	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 499 United Flight history →	SFO 11:39	BNA 18:08	20%	5%	0.5%	84%
UA 433 United	SFO 14:27	BNA 20:44	23%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON