Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3375 SFO 19:25 → BOI 22:07 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest UA 605 SFO 10:12 → BOI 12:53 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3375 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 19:25	BOI 22:07	13%	3%	0.5%	77%
UA 6027 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:59	BOI 23:55	13%	4%	0.5%	63%
UA 5720 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:36	BOI 19:26	17%	4%	0.5%	74%
UA 605 United	SFO 10:12	BOI 12:53	18%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON