Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1756 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 1756 SFO 07:03 → BUR 08:26 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 2115 SFO 10:25 → BUR 11:51 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1756 United Flight history →	SFO 07:03	BUR 08:26	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 4521 Southwest	SFO 08:33	BUR 09:53	6%	2%	5.0%	no record
UA 2363 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	BUR 09:57	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 2001 United	SFO 18:38	BUR 20:00	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 626 United Flight history →	SFO 13:50	BUR 15:17	16%	6%	0.6%	69%
UA 2764 United Flight history →	SFO 16:15	BUR 17:42	17%	6%	0.6%	56%
WN 3546 Southwest	SFO 17:05	BUR 18:25	17%	7%	3.5%	no record
WN 1045 Southwest	SFO 11:34	BUR 12:54	18%	5%	5.0%	no record
UA 2115 United Flight history →	SFO 10:25	BUR 11:51	19%	5%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON