tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2664 United Flight history → SFO 09:33 BWI 17:57 5% 2% 0.5% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 9h 15m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 1h 56m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 8h 01m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 11m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267 8h 15m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 1h 54m Los Angeles LAX 09:33 → BWI 17:43UA 1093 8h 43m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257 10h 36m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 21m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 8h 30m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 07:05 → IAH 13:11UA 686 3h 58m Houston IAH 17:09 → BWI 21:23UA 592 11h 18m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON