Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 562 at 12:00, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 562 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	BZN 15:21	18%	4%	0.6%	65%
AS 2062 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 13:56	BZN 17:11	69%	24%	3.8%	31%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971	4h 27m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088	3h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	6h 16m	98%	90%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410	1h 32m Portland	PDX 10:34 → BZN 13:16AS 393	4h 56m	97%	89%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	3h 13m Denver	DEN 11:48 → BZN 13:41UA 741	7h 41m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 11:40 → BZN 14:35DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	7h 40m	99%	86%
Alaska Details →	SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620	3h 56m Seattle	SEA 12:09 → BZN 14:47AS 277	7h 44m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SFO 15:27 → MSP 21:00DL 2159	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954	7h 25m	91%	84%
Alaska Details →	SFO 15:20 → SEA 17:24AS 630	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 20:14 → BZN 22:52AS 1323	6h 32m	99%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SFO 09:00 → SEA 11:15AS 1327	54m Seattle	SEA 12:09 → BZN 14:47AS 277	4h 47m	74%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON