tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2097 United Flight history → SFO 23:08 CLE 06:50 15% 4% 0.6% 52%
UA 2603 United SFO 10:39 CLE 18:26 20% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → MCO 08:32UA 1947 3h 03m Orlando MCO 11:35 → CLE 14:06UA 486 11h 01m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:13 → IAH 06:02UA 505 1h 18m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 8h 01m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 4h 00m Minneapolis MSP 15:36 → CLE 18:35DL 1118 9h 35m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 05m Denver DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619 6h 36m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:45 → MCO 17:21UA 583 3h 14m Orlando MCO 20:35 → CLE 23:13UA 583 11h 28m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 3h 04m Dulles IAD 22:15 → CLE 23:44UA 2131 9h 54m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → CLE 00:49 +1DL 1320 10h 11m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 3h 40m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 10h 30m 100% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:20 → EWR 19:03UA 713 52m Newark EWR 19:55 → CLE 21:45UA 2398 8h 25m 63% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON