Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3082 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 3082 SFO 06:21 → CLT 14:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 1023 SFO 12:09 → CLT 20:20 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3082 American Flight history →	SFO 06:21	CLT 14:31	5%	2%	0.7%	98%
AA 2514 American Flight history →	SFO 22:05	CLT 06:11	8%	2%	0.7%	83%
AA 1960 American Flight history →	SFO 08:15	CLT 16:36	11%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 1023 American	SFO 12:09	CLT 20:20	17%	4%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 20m Denver	DEN 09:55 → CLT 15:20UA 2231	7h 20m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772	56m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429	7h 15m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	7h 17m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON