Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1479 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1479 SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3504 SFO 13:29 → DEN 17:01 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1479 United Flight history →	SFO 05:00	DEN 08:35	5%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 4703 Southwest	SFO 06:32	DEN 10:02	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2448 United	SFO 06:17	DEN 10:09	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 1230 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 06:00	DEN 09:46	8%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 301 United Flight history →	SFO 21:00	DEN 00:47	10%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 1469 United	SFO 08:50	DEN 12:44	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2436 United Flight history →	SFO 18:56	DEN 22:44	11%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 2117 United	SFO 19:35	DEN 23:12	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 540 United Flight history →	SFO 12:43	DEN 16:35	20%	3%	0.5%	77%
F9 3436 Frontier	SFO 11:43	DEN 15:31	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 3551 Southwest	SFO 17:33	DEN 21:03	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 8167 United	SFO 12:56	DEN 16:48	21%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1604 United Flight history →	SFO 10:40	DEN 14:23	22%	4%	0.6%	68%
UA 1835 United	SFO 16:20	DEN 19:53	22%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1596 United Flight history →	SFO 14:20	DEN 18:11	23%	5%	0.5%	71%
WN 3504 Southwest	SFO 13:29	DEN 17:01	23%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON