Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2116 at 05:24 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2116 SFO 05:24 → DFW 10:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2387 SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2116 American	SFO 05:24	DFW 10:59	5%	2%	1.2%	no record
AA 2305 American Flight history →	SFO 06:45	DFW 12:29	5%	2%	1.2%	83%
AA 304 American Flight history →	SFO 08:09	DFW 13:40	10%	3%	1.2%	93%
UA 1062 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	DFW 14:25	11%	3%	0.5%	86%
AA 1188 American	SFO 09:09	DFW 14:49	12%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 557 American	SFO 17:09	DFW 22:43	16%	6%	1.2%	no record
F9 2930 Frontier	SFO 00:01	DFW 05:39	16%	7%	2.4%	no record
UA 1336 United	SFO 16:38	DFW 22:11	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1849 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	DFW 17:14	20%	6%	1.2%	45%
AA 3222 American	SFO 12:40	DFW 18:16	21%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 2842 United Flight history →	SFO 10:25	DFW 16:08	22%	6%	0.5%	61%
AA 2387 American Flight history →	SFO 14:03	DFW 19:59	23%	7%	1.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON