Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 517 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 517 SFO 06:02 → EWR 14:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2480 SFO 13:07 → EWR 21:39 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 517 United	SFO 06:02	EWR 14:49	7%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2416 United Flight history →	SFO 00:01	EWR 08:46	8%	2%	1.0%	75%
UA 1149 United Flight history →	SFO 07:00	EWR 15:49	8%	3%	1.0%	91%
UA 698 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	EWR 05:51	12%	3%	1.1%	84%
UA 1141 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	EWR 07:00	15%	3%	1.1%	83%
UA 435 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	EWR 16:53	16%	4%	1.0%	83%
UA 2248 United Flight history →	SFO 15:00	EWR 23:50	17%	7%	1.0%	67%
UA 3938 United	SFO 08:07	EWR 16:57	18%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 2626 United Flight history →	SFO 16:20	EWR 01:10	20%	7%	0.9%	70%
UA 274 United Flight history →	SFO 11:15	EWR 20:10	24%	8%	1.0%	76%
UA 366 United Flight history →	SFO 13:45	EWR 22:26	25%	8%	1.0%	57%
UA 713 United Flight history →	SFO 10:20	EWR 19:03	28%	10%	1.0%	75%
UA 2480 United Flight history →	SFO 13:07	EWR 21:39	31%	10%	1.0%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 19:37 → LAS 21:27UA 1995	1h 07m Las Vegas	LAS 22:34 → EWR 06:30 +1UA 1681	7h 53m	89%	79%
United Details →	SFO 18:58 → PHX 20:56UA 1375	1h 27m Phoenix	PHX 22:23 → EWR 06:01 +1UA 1194	8h 03m	89%	78%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 30m Denver	DEN 10:05 → EWR 16:02UA 2381	8h 02m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON