Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 5271 at 20:55 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 5271 SFO 20:55 → FAT 22:13 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest OO 5566 SFO 10:28 → FAT 11:46 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5271 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:55	FAT 22:13	14%	6%	0.7%	62%
OO 5738 SkyWest	SFO 22:34	FAT 23:41	16%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 5652 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:10	FAT 17:28	19%	7%	0.7%	62%
OO 5566 SkyWest	SFO 10:28	FAT 11:46	30%	14%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON