tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2431 SFO 08:45 → FLL 17:36 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 578 SFO 10:32 → FLL 19:17 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2431 United SFO 08:45 FLL 17:36 9% 4% 0.7% no record
B6 278 JetBlue Flight history → SFO 22:40 FLL 07:22 15% 7% 0.8% 79%
B6 578 JetBlue Flight history → SFO 10:32 FLL 19:17 17% 6% 0.8% 82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 1h 26m Houston IAH 08:00 → FLL 11:52UA 2261 8h 07m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 19m Denver DEN 09:54 → FLL 16:00UA 1214 8h 00m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 09m Houston IAH 12:04 → FLL 15:47UA 1982 7h 47m 97% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON