Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1175 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 1175 SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2380 SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1175 United Flight history →	SFO 09:20	HNL 11:43	8%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 1509 United Flight history →	SFO 16:45	HNL 19:25	15%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 638 United Flight history →	SFO 19:00	HNL 21:43	16%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 300 United Flight history →	SFO 13:55	HNL 16:18	18%	6%	0.6%	84%
AS 811 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:50	HNL 10:24	18%	5%	1.3%	68%
UA 2380 United Flight history →	SFO 10:45	HNL 13:20	19%	5%	0.6%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 07:00 → KOA 09:34AS 693	1h 17m Kailua/Kona	KOA 10:51 → HNL 11:40AS 1057	7h 40m	97%	73%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:03 → LIH 09:43AS 789	1h 31m Lihue	LIH 11:14 → HNL 11:53AS 1054	7h 50m	91%	64%
Alaska Details →	SFO 09:57 → OGG 12:22AS 979	1h 38m Kahului	OGG 14:00 → HNL 14:42AS 1135	7h 45m	93%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON