tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Frontier via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1726 United SFO 23:31 IND 07:03 8% 3% 0.5% no record
UA 2274 United SFO 10:14 IND 17:30 16% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:01 → EWR 08:46UA 2416 3h 08m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 11h 06m 100% 94%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35AA 2161 3h 44m Philadelphia PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic 11h 45m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 6h 33m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → IND 17:42DL 2979 8h 42m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 23m Denver DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522 6h 35m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657 10h 03m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:10 → BOS 15:55DL 400 1h 50m Boston BOS 17:45 → IND 20:34DL 5616 · flown by Republic 10h 24m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 17:35 → IND 19:10DL 3120 8h 20m 99% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:20 → EWR 19:03UA 713 52m Newark EWR 19:55 → IND 21:50UA 3447 · flown by Republic 8h 30m 69% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON