tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 5844 at 14:16, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 5844 SkyWest SFO 14:16 JAC 17:48 20% 5% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 5h 25m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 3h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 15:45 → JAC 16:52DL 509 5h 57m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:24 → SLC 16:18DL 902 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest 5h 13m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193 6h 46m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 1h 57m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 6h 13m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → SFO 07:07 → LAX 08:47AA 1097 1h 26m Los Angeles LAX 10:13 → JAC 13:48AA 6471 · flown by SkyWest 5h 41m 92% 77%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:04 → ORD 12:31AA 2614 57m Chicago ORD 13:28 → JAC 16:01AA 2611 8h 57m 93% 77%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 28m Denver DEN 19:03 → JAC 20:35UA 785 6h 52m 95% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596 52m Denver DEN 19:03 → JAC 20:35UA 785 5h 15m 70% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON