Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 405 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–13%.

Safest bet that day DL 405 SFO 07:00 → JFK 15:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 166 SFO 12:10 → JFK 21:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 405 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:00	JFK 15:43	6%	2%	1.1%	90%
AA 234 American Flight history →	SFO 06:15	JFK 15:02	6%	2%	2.2%	92%
AA 276 American Flight history →	SFO 21:20	JFK 06:00	7%	3%	1.4%	87%
DL 319 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:34	JFK 06:57	9%	3%	0.9%	89%
B6 616 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 00:04	JFK 08:24	10%	2%	0.9%	85%
B6 116 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 06:00	JFK 14:38	11%	3%	1.8%	89%
AS 20 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:20	JFK 16:08	12%	3%	1.3%	80%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:04	JFK 00:26	13%	4%	0.9%	77%
B6 16 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 20:25	JFK 05:07	13%	5%	0.9%	74%
DL 606 Delta	SFO 09:16	JFK 17:42	14%	6%	1.1%	no record
B6 316 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 08:00	JFK 16:37	15%	4%	1.1%	87%
AA 148 American Flight history →	SFO 14:45	JFK 23:42	16%	6%	1.2%	73%
B6 216 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 13:15	JFK 22:02	16%	6%	0.9%	83%
DL 631 Delta	SFO 13:19	JFK 21:45	17%	6%	0.9%	no record
B6 416 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 14:35	JFK 23:20	19%	6%	0.9%	80%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:30	JFK 20:19	20%	10%	1.1%	76%
AS 42 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:38	JFK 22:26	21%	7%	1.0%	68%
AA 16 American Flight history →	SFO 10:15	JFK 19:04	23%	9%	1.6%	75%
AA 166 American Flight history →	SFO 12:10	JFK 21:00	23%	10%	1.4%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	7h 57m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178	1h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	8h 00m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SFO 14:00 → ATL 21:49DL 531	50m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → JFK 00:55 +1DL 1632	7h 55m	78%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON