Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 693 SFO 07:00 → KOA 09:34 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1723 SFO 18:51 → KOA 21:14 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 693 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:00	KOA 09:34	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 1721 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	KOA 10:40	7%	2%	0.5%	88%
UA 1723 United Flight history →	SFO 18:51	KOA 21:14	11%	3%	0.5%	83%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 09:57 → OGG 12:23AS 979	1h 40m Kahului	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	7h 42m	95%	75%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:50 → HNL 10:25AS 811	1h 09m Honolulu	HNL 11:34 → KOA 12:32AS 1098	7h 42m	87%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON