Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4524 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4524 SFO 06:54 → LAS 08:29 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 776 SFO 14:10 → LAS 15:43 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4524 Southwest	SFO 06:54	LAS 08:29	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1711 United	SFO 07:01	LAS 08:53	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1627 United	SFO 08:37	LAS 10:32	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 406 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	LAS 23:10	12%	4%	0.6%	77%
UA 1995 United Flight history →	SFO 19:37	LAS 21:27	12%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 751 United Flight history →	SFO 17:37	LAS 19:27	14%	5%	0.6%	72%
UA 2352 United	SFO 14:17	LAS 16:05	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 611 United Flight history →	SFO 10:42	LAS 12:28	15%	5%	0.6%	80%
F9 4402 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 19:04	LAS 20:55	18%	10%	1.2%	65%
UA 1777 United	SFO 12:27	LAS 14:17	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 718 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 10:47	LAS 12:24	19%	4%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
WN 1231 Southwest	SFO 16:45	LAS 18:19	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 2486 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 15:08	LAS 16:59	21%	11%	1.2%	68%
WN 1138 Southwest	SFO 14:00	LAS 15:35	21%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 4158 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 11:20	LAS 13:10	24%	9%	1.2%	67%
AS 776 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 14:10	LAS 15:43	26%	6%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON