Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 36 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2127 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2127 SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 200 SFO 10:04 → LAX 11:27 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2127 United Flight history →	SFO 06:00	LAX 07:39	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 1598 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:00	LAX 08:30	4%	1%	0.9%	94%
AA 1097 American Flight history →	SFO 07:07	LAX 08:47	7%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 1079 Southwest	SFO 07:44	LAX 09:04	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1421 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:20	LAX 10:53	8%	2%	0.9%	91%
UA 1260 United Flight history →	SFO 07:01	LAX 08:38	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1457 United	SFO 09:00	LAX 10:43	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3554 Southwest	SFO 09:31	LAX 10:52	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2610 United Flight history →	SFO 13:55	LAX 15:35	14%	4%	0.6%	78%
OO 6274 SkyWest	SFO 09:22	LAX 10:52	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
F9 3308 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 08:50	LAX 10:25	14%	4%	1.4%	70%
UA 1799 United	SFO 18:33	LAX 19:58	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1559 Delta Flight history →	SFO 18:07	LAX 19:32	15%	5%	0.8%	67%
AA 1022 American	SFO 13:20	LAX 14:49	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1506 United Flight history →	SFO 12:15	LAX 13:55	16%	5%	0.6%	71%
UA 1079 United	SFO 21:28	LAX 22:53	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 1329 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 08:30	LAX 10:07	16%	2%	0.8%	64%
UA 2409 United Flight history →	SFO 19:42	LAX 21:07	18%	5%	0.6%	68%
DL 2114 Delta	SFO 16:57	LAX 18:22	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 1164 United Flight history →	SFO 10:34	LAX 12:07	18%	5%	0.6%	75%
UA 8154 United	SFO 16:19	LAX 17:54	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 6277 SkyWest	SFO 11:47	LAX 13:17	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 2112 Delta	SFO 12:07	LAX 13:32	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 2282 United	SFO 17:35	LAX 18:58	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 689 Delta	SFO 14:27	LAX 15:50	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
OO 249 SkyWest	SFO 10:16	LAX 11:46	21%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 6428 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:09	LAX 11:49	22%	8%	0.8%	59%
OO 3385 SkyWest	SFO 12:22	LAX 13:52	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
OO 6276 SkyWest	SFO 16:08	LAX 17:38	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2750 Southwest	SFO 20:12	LAX 21:34	23%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 699 Southwest	SFO 12:09	LAX 13:30	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4529 Southwest	SFO 15:47	LAX 17:08	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 1407 Alaska	SFO 17:31	LAX 18:52	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 520 Alaska	SFO 15:36	LAX 16:59	26%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 584 Alaska	SFO 18:53	LAX 20:14	27%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 200 Alaska	SFO 10:04	LAX 11:27	27%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON