tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Bush, leaving 00:13, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:13 → IAH 06:02UA 505 2h 03m Houston IAH 08:05 → LGA 12:48UA 1143 9h 35m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 1h 39m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 7h 58m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 8h 46m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 49m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 14m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 46m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 13m Houston IAH 09:47 → LGA 14:29UA 678 10h 44m 100% 69%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 9h 37m 99% 68%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 3h 12m Denver DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033 9h 50m 100% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON