Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	6h 09m	99%	88%
Alaska Details →	SFO 13:46 → SEA 15:50AS 68	2h 44m Seattle	SEA 18:34 → LGB 21:11AS 428	7h 25m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620	3h 27m Seattle	SEA 11:40 → LGB 14:11AS 717	8h 08m	100%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON