tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:57, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 789 Alaska Flight history → SFO 07:03 LIH 09:43 8% 2% 0.7% 97%
UA 1111 United Flight history → SFO 08:47 LIH 11:41 8% 3% 0.6% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 1h 06m Los Angeles LAX 08:45 → LIH 11:44UA 1295 8h 44m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 3h 25m Denver DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307 13h 37m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:47 → LAX 11:09DL 1421 3h 36m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 10h 54m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 10:57 → SEA 13:01AS 580 3h 54m Seattle SEA 16:55 → LIH 20:10AS 237 12h 13m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697 11h 46m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620 3h 15m Seattle SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258 11h 37m 100% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 09:57 → OGG 12:23AS 979 3h 20m Kahului OGG 15:43 → LIH 16:30AS 1269 9h 33m 100% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:50 → HNL 10:25AS 811 3h 03m Honolulu HNL 13:28 → LIH 14:18AS 1083 9h 28m 99% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 13:44 → SEA 15:47AS 656 1h 08m Seattle SEA 16:55 → LIH 20:10AS 237 9h 26m 70% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON