tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1515 United Flight history → SFO 16:29 MCI 22:15 18% 8% 0.5% 50%
UA 2072 United SFO 11:02 MCI 16:38 19% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:13 → IAH 06:02UA 505 1h 58m Houston IAH 08:00 → MCI 10:15UA 2009 8h 02m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 07m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 2h 45m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 9h 14m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:50 → MCI 12:38UA 2159 5h 38m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 2h 09m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 7h 14m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 2h 31m Los Angeles LAX 10:10 → MCI 15:45UA 5426 · flown by SkyWest 7h 45m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 1h 51m Phoenix PHX 09:52 → MCI 14:52AA 1622 7h 02m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 8h 30m 98% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:20 → SEA 17:24AS 630 59m Seattle SEA 18:23 → MCI 23:44AS 497 6h 24m 74% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON