tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1842 at 22:44 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1842 SFO 22:44 → MIA 07:38 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1458 SFO 12:20 → MIA 21:07 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 1842 American SFO 22:44 MIA 07:38 10% 3% 0.9% no record
AA 2799 American Flight history → SFO 09:32 MIA 18:06 19% 6% 0.9% 72%
UA 1458 United SFO 12:20 MIA 21:07 22% 6% 0.7% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 1h 23m Houston IAH 07:57 → MIA 11:47UA 2753 8h 02m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 05m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 7h 47m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 59m Phoenix PHX 09:00 → MIA 16:41AA 1968 7h 51m 94% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON