Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 5627 at 17:25 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 5627 SFO 17:25 → MRY 18:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest OO 750 SFO 10:33 → MRY 11:30 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5627 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:25	MRY 18:39	10%	5%	0.8%	79%
OO 410 SkyWest	SFO 21:12	MRY 22:10	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
OO 5920 SkyWest	SFO 14:04	MRY 15:15	17%	8%	0.7%	no record
OO 750 SkyWest	SFO 10:33	MRY 11:30	32%	11%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON