tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 5422 at 12:15, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5422 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 12:15 MSO 15:38 33% 14% 0.5% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 3h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:03 → MSO 12:39DL 1723 5h 49m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 59m Denver DEN 11:34 → MSO 13:43UA 2357 7h 43m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 2h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 22:46 → MSO 00:22 +1DL 1824 6h 15m 98% 87%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 1h 56m Portland PDX 10:58 → MSO 13:32AS 2146 · flown by Horizon 5h 12m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 55m Denver DEN 19:30 → MSO 21:39UA 1092 7h 56m 97% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 05:59 → SEA 08:03AS 580 1h 55m Seattle SEA 09:58 → MSO 12:30AS 2230 · flown by Horizon 5h 31m 97% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:55 → SEA 08:57AS 620 3h 50m Seattle SEA 12:47 → MSO 15:13AS 660 7h 18m 100% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON