tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Bush, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching New Orleans on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2119 United SFO 07:13 MSY 13:31 8% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 1244 United SFO 16:27 MSY 22:39 18% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:13 → IAH 06:02UA 505 1h 30m Houston IAH 07:32 → MSY 08:57UA 491 6h 44m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 11m Houston IAH 09:45 → MSY 11:01UA 575 8h 16m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 7h 57m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 7h 25m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 17:57 → MSY 18:34DL 678 8h 44m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → MSY 23:43DL 2224 10h 05m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 07:05 → IAH 13:11UA 686 1h 47m Houston IAH 14:58 → MSY 16:24UA 2738 7h 19m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 00m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 6h 14m 94% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON