Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AS 1410 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–17%.

Safest bet that day AS 1410 SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 235 SFO 12:08 → PDX 13:50 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 1410 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:20	PDX 09:02	7%	1%	0.7%	93%
UA 2413 United Flight history →	SFO 20:50	PDX 22:48	12%	5%	0.6%	56%
UA 1227 United	SFO 18:58	PDX 20:47	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1812 United Flight history →	SFO 16:33	PDX 18:23	13%	5%	0.6%	74%
AS 1411 Alaska	SFO 08:23	PDX 10:13	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 5777 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:15	PDX 10:13	14%	4%	0.6%	69%
UA 2851 United Flight history →	SFO 12:30	PDX 14:21	16%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 2624 United	SFO 10:24	PDX 12:15	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 525 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 19:04	PDX 20:49	17%	3%	0.6%	83%
AS 1302 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:02	PDX 16:47	22%	4%	0.6%	76%
AS 235 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 12:08	PDX 13:50	29%	4%	0.6%	62%
AS 2023 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 22:08	PDX 23:52	46%	31%	6.9%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON