Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2161 SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2722 SFO 07:42 → PHL 15:57 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2161 American Flight history →	SFO 06:00	PHL 14:35	6%	1%	0.8%	93%
AA 3166 American Flight history →	SFO 21:17	PHL 05:54	8%	2%	0.8%	89%
UA 2824 United	SFO 08:53	PHL 17:36	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2854 United Flight history →	SFO 23:20	PHL 07:50	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 1845 American	SFO 09:55	PHL 18:38	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2722 American Flight history →	SFO 07:42	PHL 15:57	12%	3%	0.8%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 00m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	7h 12m	95%	82%
American Details →	SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest	53m Phoenix	PHX 08:54 → PHL 16:42AA 2300	7h 52m	91%	75%
United Details →	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	1h 19m Denver	DEN 17:54 → PHL 23:30UA 1510	7h 47m	90%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON