Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3557 at 05:38 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 3557 SFO 05:38 → PHX 07:33 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 972 SFO 10:45 → PHX 12:41 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3557 Southwest	SFO 05:38	PHX 07:33	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 6404 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 05:50	PHX 08:01	6%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2374 United Flight history →	SFO 08:08	PHX 10:06	11%	2%	0.6%	92%
AA 2414 American Flight history →	SFO 08:15	PHX 10:22	11%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1653 United	SFO 21:00	PHX 22:58	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 5460 SkyWest	SFO 12:39	PHX 15:06	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 574 United Flight history →	SFO 16:25	PHX 18:39	17%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 1375 United Flight history →	SFO 18:58	PHX 20:56	17%	5%	0.6%	85%
AA 1837 American	SFO 16:07	PHX 18:22	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2334 American	SFO 12:26	PHX 14:42	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3975 Southwest	SFO 14:34	PHX 16:30	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 972 Southwest	SFO 10:45	PHX 12:41	25%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON