tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 12:42, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1341 United SFO 21:21 PIT 05:10 6% 3% 0.5% no record
UA 1954 United SFO 08:03 PIT 15:58 6% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351 10h 12m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 7h 40m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:15 → JFK 15:02AA 234 1h 24m New York JFK 16:26 → PIT 18:05AA 4734 · flown by Republic 8h 50m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 8h 08m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 3h 19m Dulles IAD 22:30 → PIT 23:36UA 3540 · flown by Republic 9h 46m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 30m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 7h 16m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35AA 2161 3h 11m Philadelphia PHL 17:46 → PIT 19:17AA 2731 10h 17m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:49DL 3122 7h 59m 97% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON