Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 717 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 717 SFO 08:35 → PSP 10:18 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OO 3420 SFO 11:43 → PSP 13:22 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 717 United Flight history →	SFO 08:35	PSP 10:18	10%	5%	0.6%	95%
UA 5705 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:38	PSP 20:26	15%	5%	0.7%	83%
AS 3356 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:19	PSP 21:57	16%	5%	0.8%	61%
UA 342 United	SFO 12:42	PSP 14:14	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 4671 SkyWest	SFO 16:25	PSP 18:17	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 3420 SkyWest	SFO 11:43	PSP 13:22	22%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON