tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2080 United Flight history → SFO 00:05 RDU 08:29 7% 2% 0.5% 91%
UA 2816 United SFO 08:03 RDU 16:16 10% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 2h 53m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 9h 07m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 7h 20m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:04 → ORD 12:31AA 2614 3h 31m Chicago ORD 16:02 → RDU 19:16AA 4503 · flown by Republic 10h 12m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 14m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 7h 16m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699 8h 51m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → RDU 00:10 +1DL 2938 9h 32m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097 8h 04m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:01 → EWR 08:46UA 2416 2h 14m Newark EWR 11:00 → RDU 12:36UA 1410 9h 35m 99% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON