Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 5394 at 08:13 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 5394 SFO 08:13 → RNO 09:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1845 SFO 10:44 → RNO 11:55 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5394 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:13	RNO 09:27	11%	4%	0.8%	88%
OO 4642 SkyWest	SFO 16:44	RNO 17:53	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1757 United Flight history →	SFO 22:45	RNO 23:58	16%	5%	0.6%	64%
UA 581 United	SFO 18:49	RNO 19:56	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1845 United	SFO 10:44	RNO 11:55	27%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON