tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2281 United SFO 16:16 SAT 21:52 16% 5% 0.5% no record
UA 2365 United SFO 12:26 SAT 18:06 20% 7% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 04m Houston IAH 09:38 → SAT 10:54UA 1371 8h 09m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → SFO 08:09 → DFW 13:40AA 304 3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:35 → SAT 18:54AA 3899 · flown by Envoy 8h 45m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580 9h 11m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123 5h 46m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:04 → ORD 12:31AA 2614 2h 32m Chicago ORD 15:03 → SAT 18:03AA 4176 · flown by Envoy 9h 59m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43UA 2625 5h 43m 94% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:58 → SAT 17:29DL 1465 9h 29m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:13 → IAH 06:02UA 505 1h 18m Houston IAH 07:20 → SAT 08:27UA 2250 6h 14m 94% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON