Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2866 SFO 21:23 → SBA 22:45 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest UA 1578 SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2866 United Flight history →	SFO 21:23	SBA 22:45	13%	4%	0.7%	76%
OO 5806 SkyWest	SFO 19:00	SBA 20:22	13%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 5464 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:50	SBA 15:17	15%	8%	0.8%	70%
OO 5936 SkyWest	SFO 16:19	SBA 17:41	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1578 United Flight history →	SFO 10:29	SBA 11:52	18%	5%	0.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON