Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2721 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2721 SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 656 SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2721 Delta Flight history →	SFO 05:55	SEA 08:05	4%	1%	0.8%	95%
AS 620 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 06:03	SEA 08:13	9%	1%	0.8%	90%
AS 580 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 06:00	SEA 08:07	10%	2%	0.8%	80%
DL 1412 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:30	SEA 15:47	13%	4%	0.7%	77%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	SFO 20:45	SEA 23:10	14%	5%	0.5%	66%
OO 5790 SkyWest	SFO 07:47	SEA 10:18	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 5579 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 22:59	SEA 01:29	17%	5%	0.7%	72%
DL 3991 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:59	SEA 23:17	17%	5%	0.7%	67%
UA 1097 United	SFO 18:42	SEA 20:47	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 1053 Delta	SFO 10:24	SEA 12:35	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 591 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 20:28	SEA 22:41	20%	5%	0.8%	72%
DL 3707 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:29	SEA 19:44	21%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 8143 United	SFO 16:18	SEA 18:23	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 1327 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:00	SEA 11:15	22%	4%	0.8%	69%
AS 68 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:46	SEA 15:50	24%	4%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
AS 758 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 17:38	SEA 19:47	24%	5%	0.8%	73%
AS 1340 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:50	SEA 18:00	25%	5%	0.8%	69%
UA 2744 United Flight history →	SFO 12:10	SEA 14:30	25%	5%	0.5%	72%
UA 500 United	SFO 10:17	SEA 12:28	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 630 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:20	SEA 17:24	28%	5%	0.8%	21%
AS 656 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 10:18	SEA 12:27	36%	6%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON