Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1331 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 1331 SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 520 SFO 14:07 → SLC 17:08 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1331 Delta Flight history →	SFO 05:50	SLC 08:40	3%	1%	0.7%	96%
OO 5908 SkyWest	SFO 09:15	SLC 12:16	9%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 920 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:55	SLC 12:44	11%	3%	0.7%	78%
UA 5590 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:45	SLC 21:45	11%	6%	0.6%	81%
DL 670 Delta	SFO 19:24	SLC 22:21	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1088 Delta Flight history →	SFO 17:07	SLC 20:00	16%	5%	0.7%	71%
DL 902 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:24	SLC 16:18	18%	5%	0.7%	71%
UA 520 United	SFO 14:07	SLC 17:08	19%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON