Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AS 3440 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–21%.

Safest bet that day AS 3440 SFO 07:04 → SNA 08:43 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 3055 SFO 12:00 → SNA 13:39 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3440 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 07:04	SNA 08:43	9%	3%	1.2%	92%
UA 589 United Flight history →	SFO 19:10	SNA 20:55	10%	4%	0.6%	89%
OO 5405 SkyWest	SFO 07:09	SNA 08:48	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
AS 3465 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:47	SNA 22:26	14%	3%	1.2%	79%
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 09:17	SNA 10:56	16%	5%	1.0%	79%
UA 2441 United Flight history →	SFO 12:27	SNA 14:12	16%	6%	0.6%	89%
UA 643 United Flight history →	SFO 10:23	SNA 12:06	19%	6%	0.6%	82%
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 15:48	SNA 17:26	19%	4%	1.1%	85%
UA 5440 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:39	SNA 15:31	20%	6%	0.8%	80%
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:25	SNA 18:04	21%	6%	1.1%	71%
OO 5597 SkyWest	SFO 16:44	SNA 18:23	21%	6%	1.1%	no record
AS 3216 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:48	SNA 15:27	23%	6%	0.9%	74%
OO 3055 SkyWest	SFO 12:00	SNA 13:39	27%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON