tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1905 United SFO 12:38 STL 18:43 18% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 3564 Southwest SFO 11:59 STL 17:44 20% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 3h 35m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 8h 50m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 5h 43m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 3h 36m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 9h 44m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → STL 20:06DL 2833 10h 16m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:45 → DFW 12:29AA 2305 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:43 → STL 16:40AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 7h 55m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:07DL 543 8h 07m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:13 → IAH 06:02UA 505 1h 58m Houston IAH 08:00 → STL 10:07UA 6214 · flown by Mesa 7h 54m 98% 85%
JetBlueDetails → SFO 00:04 → JFK 08:37B6 616 2h 35m New York JFK 11:12 → STL 12:50B6 9003 10h 46m 98% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON