Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Hailey on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127	3h 56m Los Angeles	LAX 11:35 → SUN 15:00UA 5379 · flown by SkyWest	8h 00m	100%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON