Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Bush, leaving 00:13, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Tampa on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1702 United	SFO 21:03	TPA 05:13	12%	2%	1.2%	no record
UA 2818 United Flight history →	SFO 10:35	TPA 18:53	23%	5%	1.0%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088	3h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:50 → TPA 06:01 +1DL 2077	9h 54m	99%	88%
United Details →	SFO 00:01 → EWR 08:46UA 2416	3h 14m Newark	EWR 12:00 → TPA 15:06UA 601	12h 05m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	9h 51m	99%	87%
United Details →	SFO 00:13 → IAH 06:02UA 505	1h 20m Houston	IAH 07:22 → TPA 10:49UA 1353	7h 36m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457	9h 04m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	7h 58m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SFO 18:07 → LAX 19:32DL 1559	3h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 22:34 → TPA 06:16 +1DL 910	9h 09m	98%	84%
Frontier Details →	SFO 06:00 → DEN 09:46F9 1230	1h 36m Denver	DEN 11:22 → TPA 16:58F9 2748	7h 58m	97%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON