tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 5341 SkyWest SFO 19:00 TUS 21:15 12% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 5433 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 10:24 TUS 12:45 21% 7% 0.6% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 2h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 6h 11m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:20 → LAX 10:53DL 1421 3h 17m Los Angeles LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest 6h 30m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 55m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 7h 32m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAH 16:52UA 1259 3h 24m Houston IAH 20:16 → TUS 20:57UA 1976 10h 07m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 2h 58m Houston IAH 09:32 → TUS 10:07UA 6219 · flown by Mesa 9h 22m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27UA 1387 1h 33m Houston IAH 20:00 → TUS 20:42UA 4040 · flown by Mesa 8h 27m 96% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620 2h 06m Seattle SEA 10:19 → TUS 13:31AS 648 7h 28m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:45 → DFW 12:29AA 2305 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:46 → TUS 15:01AA 584 8h 16m 98% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON