Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3842 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17%.

Safest bet that day AA 3842 SGF 05:01 → DFW 06:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 4311 SGF 18:42 → DFW 20:12 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3842 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 05:01	DFW 06:38	6%	4%	0.9%	93%
AA 3913 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 09:44	DFW 11:19	10%	4%	1.0%	81%
AA 3976 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 07:09	DFW 08:44	10%	5%	1.0%	91%
AA 4152 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 11:36	DFW 13:08	11%	4%	0.9%	91%
AA 3952 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 12:53	DFW 14:23	11%	4%	0.9%	82%
AA 3624 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 08:14	DFW 09:54	11%	5%	1.1%	82%
AA 3494 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 14:31	DFW 16:08	12%	4%	0.8%	78%
AA 3556 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 16:14	DFW 17:50	17%	4%	0.9%	68%
AA 4311 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 18:42	DFW 20:12	17%	4%	1.1%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON