Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 5915 at 07:04, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5915 SGF 07:04 → IAH 09:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5915 SkyWest	SGF 07:04	IAH 09:00	7%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 4852 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 06:15	IAH 08:17	15%	4%	0.9%	85%
UA 4996 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 17:08	IAH 19:10	22%	11%	2.2%	78%
UA 4574 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 15:15	IAH 17:17	28%	14%	3.3%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON