tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Springfield). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SGF 06:00 → ATL 08:54DL 1680 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 8h 02m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → SGF 05:50 → DEN 06:57UA 5895 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 5h 17m 97% 92%
UnitedDetails → SGF 09:03 → DEN 10:20UA 5898 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m Denver DEN 13:32 → LAS 14:41UA 493 7h 38m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → SGF 06:15 → IAH 08:17UA 4852 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 38m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 58m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → SGF 05:01 → DFW 06:38AA 3842 · flown by Envoy 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:54 → LAS 09:54AA 1550 6h 53m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SGF 15:30 → ATL 18:26DL 4854 · flown by Endeavor 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 21:20 → LAS 22:35DL 825 9h 05m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → SGF 07:09 → DFW 08:44AA 3976 · flown by Envoy 1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:42 → LAS 11:44AA 1482 6h 35m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SGF 11:32 → ATL 14:27DL 4707 · flown by Endeavor 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711 8h 20m 96% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SGF 17:08 → IAH 19:10UA 4996 · flown by CommuteAir 52m Houston IAH 20:02 → LAS 21:07UA 1360 5h 59m 74% 62%
UnitedDetails → SGF 15:07 → ORD 17:02UA 4466 · flown by GoJet 1h 15m Chicago ORD 18:17 → LAS 20:06UA 1703 6h 59m 74% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON