Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: MQ 3584 at 10:44 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3584 SGF 10:44 → ORD 12:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5686 SGF 15:06 → ORD 16:46 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3584 Envoy	SGF 10:44	ORD 12:35	7%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5573 SkyWest	SGF 05:59	ORD 07:47	7%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 4129 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 07:15	ORD 09:05	8%	4%	0.6%	83%
OO 5407 SkyWest	SGF 11:18	ORD 13:06	14%	8%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3544 Envoy	SGF 15:51	ORD 17:49	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3594 Envoy	SGF 19:46	ORD 21:33	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 5570 SkyWest	SGF 18:24	ORD 20:03	22%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 5686 SkyWest	SGF 15:06	ORD 16:46	23%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 4421 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 07:45	ORD 09:40	19%	9%	4.9%	81%
UA 4525 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 11:19	ORD 13:12	33%	18%	3.3%	67%
UA 4466 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 15:07	ORD 17:02	35%	17%	5.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON